![]() |
|---|
|
MANUFACTURING CERTAINTY
Certainty, in order to exist, has to be manufactured. Contrary to what we tend to think, it isn’t naturally occurring at all but has to be deliberately produced. This is most easily seen in the case of what we might call ‘psychological certainty’. Psychological certainty is simply another way of talking about opinions, beliefs, theories, ideas and thoughts - it basically means any sort of ‘mental structure’ whatsoever. Out of a vast pool of conflicting data we selectively pull out the evidence that suits our presuppositions, without ever realizing that this is what we are doing. Out of this body of agreeing data comes our certainty, which in terms of Ernst and Christine von Weizsacker’s (1972) Model of Pragmatic Information, corresponds to ‘confirmation’. Conflicting evidence obviously does not produce certainty – it simply produces conflicting answers and if instead of ‘an answer’ there are many alternative and conflicting answers this equals uncertainty (or ‘indeterminacy’).
|
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total uncertainty corresponds to what the authors call ‘novelty’ in the Model of Pragmatic Information. If I can’t know what the ‘right’ answer is, or rather if I can’t know if I asked a meaningful question in the first place, then I am clearly not any better off in terms of ‘certainty’. Prigogine and Stengers (1984) speak of ‘an irreducible plurality of perspectives’ and the way in which the rational mind works (the only way it can work, in fact) is to choose one perspective out of this plurality and thoroughly ignore all the rest. Without seeing that this is what we are doing, we are making sure that the only type of information we are going to receive is information that confirms that our perspective is the correct one. The psychological consequence of this operation is a virtually unshakable sense of the rightness of our way of looking at things. To say that this is an easy trap to fall into is to completely understate the matter – we can’t take a step (thinking-wise) without falling into this hole. Furthermore, the ‘trap’ inherent in all rational thinking is very convenient indeed as far as our unacknowledged need for manufactured certainty goes – because of this neat little trick manufactured certainty is available in unlimited quantities to anyone who wants it, with zero expenditure of effort.
Instead of being essentially unpredictable – which is what information ought to be for it to be truly called information – it is tautological since it was already decided right from the start, and for this reason what we are talking about is not information, but the reciprocal (or ‘reverse’) of information, which is entropy. Thus, certainty (the certainty which we rely on so completely for the functioning of our everyday minds) is a product of entropy. In a nutshell - the edifice of positive knowledge which means so very much to us, and which we are so inordinately proud of, is nothing more than ‘disguised redundancy’.
|
|||||||||||
| Home | Archive | About | Blog | Links | MySpace | Contact | Further Reading |
All Material © Nicholas Williams, Galway |
|---|
| nickwilliams@radicaluncertainty.com |
| Design: John Conroy |